Fears of an imminent recession have faded and been replaced with cautious optimism, especially about 2020.
President Trump at a November rally in Chattanooga, Tenn. By Heather Long Heather Long Economics correspondent Email Bio Follow April 17 at 2:29 PM A noticeable shift has taken place on Wall Street and among many economists and business leaders in recent weeks: Fears of an imminent recession have faded and been replaced with cautious optimism, especially about 2020, a trend that bodes well for President Trump as he seeks reelection.
There’s a plausible story to tell that explains why this optimism has taken root: A U.S.-China trade agreement looks likely, the Chinese economy appears to be stabilizing, and the Federal Reserve has shown it will do whatever it takes to keep this expansion going. How the economy fares in spring 2020 is likely to play a large role in Trump’s reelection chances, according to election experts such as Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. The best guess now is that the economy in early to mid-2020 won’t produce the “huge” growth Trump likes to boast about, but there’s a decent chance it will be doing well enough to give him an edge against his Democratic opponent.
China, a nation Trump often berates, also is providing a boost to the global and U.S. economies by stimulating its own. The world’s second-largest economy, China said Wednesday that growth was 6.4 percent in the first quarter, slightly better than expected and a sign that China has stabilized despite the trade war.
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