Our DAViD metric, the Data-Assisted Victory Detector for the NCAA tournament, highlights which of these first-round upsets are not only the most likely to occur, but also which will provide the most value by differentiating your picks from the pool.
Saint Mary’s, fresh off the upset of No. 1 Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament, does not commit many turnovers on offense nor do they allow many steals.
As we decipher which upset picks look like the smartest plays in Round 1, we are going to focus on the true underdogs — a No. 9 seed beating a No. 8 is technically an upset, but those winners at the 10-seed line and below is where the true value lies.One upset we won’t be picking is a No. 16 seed over a No. 1 seed. Sure, No. 16 UMBC pulled off a historic upset of No.
Cincinnati commits an above-average number of fouls. The Bearcats also struggle to slow down spot-up shooters, a strength of Iowa’s. This season, Iowa scored 1.1 points per possession on spot-up attempts, placing them in the 95th percentile on these plays. Cincinnati’s defense against these plays put them in the 78th percentile.Saint Mary’s, fresh off the upset of No. 1 Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament, does not commit many turnovers nor do the Gaels allow many steals .
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