Analysis: Did the 2016 presidential primary debates make any difference?
Presidential candidate Donald Trump pauses onstage after the CNBC Republican presidential debate in Boulder, Colo. By Philip Bump Philip Bump National correspondent focused largely on the numbers behind politics Email Bio Follow May 14 at 10:56 AM It’s a natural default assumption that when big-ticket events occur over the course of a presidential election, they are necessarily important.
But it was one of the candidates from the lower-tier debate who saw the most movement afterward. Looking at the RealClearPolitics poll average by day, we see that the two candidates who gained the most in the polls in the weeks after the debate was held were Ben Carson and business executive Carly Fiorina.
Perhaps the most interesting thing to occur in the wake of the debate, though, was the withdrawal of then-Gov. Scott Walker . Walker had at one point led the field. But without making headway in the debate and with a campaign that had quickly hit rocky financial waters, he called it quits. A debate a month later, a few weeks before the caucuses began in Iowa, had almost no effect on the field.
“Let’s dispel once and for all with this fiction that Barack Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing,” Rubio said. “He knows exactly what he’s doing.” By this point, though, it was the voting that was clearly winnowing the field. By mid-March, leading in votes and delegates, Trump essentially refused to participate in any more debates. He went on to win the nomination.During the candidates’ first sanctioned debate, Sen. Bernie Sanders offered the most memorable line of the Democratic contest — a line that helped his opponent.
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