The Alberta economy in Canada is in crisis as the price for its low-grade crude plummets. A second pipeline is needed to boost oil exports to Asia. But there is controversy over the project and no investors in sight.
Far north of Texas, another great North American oil reserve sits, waiting — some say — to be further exploited. The province of Alberta is Canada's main oil producer: 97 percent of the country's proven reserves — 166.3 billion barrels — can be found in its oil sands. The reserve, buried beneath a layer of muskeg and forest in the northeastern part of the province, holds a reservoir of heavy crude oil known as bitumen, mixed with sand, clay and water.
A second oil pipeline that would run through neighboring British Columbia to the west coast could solve that problem and get the oil revenue-dependent province back on track. That's what the convoy that arrived in the Canadian capital two weeks ago drove 2,000 miles to demand from the federal government.
Kinder Morgan backed out of the pipeline venture because it was too risky. Vocal protests in British Columbia and a series of court challenges have delayed and complicated the project. "I think there's lots of both political capital and actual capital at stake here," said Jackie Forrest of the ARC Energy Research Institute,"and a lot of incentive for them to see the project through."
In the short term a pipeline could attract investment capital to the oil sands, but it wouldn't necessarily represent a change in oil sands output right away. Forrest said the growth outlook would likely be similar to what's currently expected over the next four to five years, because of existing investments. Widely cited estimates from the Conference Board of Canada, a think tank, place the value of the pipeline at $18.
That's an argument for Canada developing alternative markets in places like Asia. But Mason also questions if predictions for those markets are overly optimistic. Warming and acidifying oceans — consequences of climate change, which is directly linked to burning fossil fuels — impact Canada's fisheries, she said. For some species fished in Canada, like the Pacific herring and the Atlantic cod, impact estimates are as high as 30 percent to 60 percent stock loss in the next 50 years.
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