An internal European Central Bank model indicates the euro zone's economic ...
WASHINGTON - An internal European Central Bank model indicates the euro zone’s economic growth could slow further in the second quarter, suggesting the projected recovery may be delayed even further, two sources familiar with the discussion said on Friday.
The ECB’s nowcasting model, presented to policymakers at Wednesday’s Governing Council meeting, indicated quarterly growth was just above 0.2 percent in the first three months of the year and may be somewhat weaker in the second quarter, the sources, who asked not to be named, told Reuters. But the weakness may last longer than thought even just a few weeks ago, underpinning ECB President Mario Draghi’s generally dovish tone, the sources said, as global finance leaders gathered in Washington for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings.
But the sources added that the nowcasting model, which looks at a wide array of recent indicators, is prone to big swings and is not necessarily accurate so early into a quarter.The ECB’s economic projections put quarterly growth at 0.2 percent in the first three months of the year and at 0.3 percent in the second quarter. The European Commission, meanwhile, sees growth in the first two quarters at 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
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