Economists warn that China's economic growth could plummet to 2 percent in the next decade
China has been a strong performer among emerging economies, even if its growth has been slowing. But that's set to end, according to research firm Capital Economics.
Speakers at the conference pointed to a number of risks, as well as changing demographics in the world's second largest economy. That includes its debt problem, declining work force, and increasingly weaker drivers of productivity, they said. China's debt problem will not go away, with the real concern being corporate debt and household debt — as opposed to government, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, Capital Economics' senior China economist, at the conference. He blamed rising debt levels on poor lending practices.
Evans-Pritchard noted that the real risk lies with property developers, who have borrowed the most to fund their land-buying spree. Apart from the debt issue, Williams said the underlying engines of rapid growth in the country's economy are also fading. He cited a declining work force — hit by its One Child Policy introduced in the 1970s — and weakening drivers of productivity.
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