Europe's leaders face a huge Brexit gamble on extending the U.K. departure
The 27 European countries are considering whether or not to grant the U.K. a long extension to its European exit, but this could be the bloc's biggest Brexit gamble so far.
"Some in the EU are pushing for a long extension, to give the U.K. more time to find a way out of the mess that is its domestic politics right now," Carsten Nickel, managing director at Teneo Intelligence, told CNBC via email. "This longer extension will inevitably entail holding European Parliament elections in the U.K., thus favouring an acceleration of the political changes in the U.K. This might moderate the U.K. stance in Brexit and push for a closer relationship between the U.K. and EU," he explained.
Political analysts at the European Policy Centre a think tank, believe that in a long extension, think the EU would lose its leverage; fuel the argument of those that want to leave the EU; and face stronger political fragmentation in the upcoming European Parliament elections. "If Brexit is delayed substantively, Leave supporters would worry about the U.K. not leaving after all, and are likely to see this as a betrayal of democracy. Remainers' hope of reversing Brexit could be rekindled. As a consequence, both sides could effectively turn the European elections into a quasi-referendum on the UK's relationship with the EU.
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