Chart of the day: Prepare for the unpredictability of life in the 'late, late cycle'
Traders might feel compelled to dust off their playbooks for late-cycle investing lately, says AllianceBernstein strategist Richard Brink, but this isn’t your typical late cycle, and typical late-cycle responses might not apply this time around.
Over that first 20 years, interest rates and inflation declined, baby boomers entered their prime earning years, and a wave of globalization and technological progress led to productivity and profitability on an “unimaginable” scale. In other words, the rich returns of the past decade weren’t driven by economic or corporate growth, but by a flood of cheap and easy money.“Leveraged returns are not sustainable,” he said. “Investors might cheer at net margin improvements and rising valuations. But it’s really just a prolonged sugar rush, without any sustainable nourishment in the form of real revenue gains or economic growth.
“In the two years since President Trump took office, the SPX has gained around the same number of points as it did in the last four years of Obama’s presidency,” she wrote. “Those gains are in jeopardy, as uncertainty will weigh on markets in anticipation of a possible return to a more socialist agenda under Biden.”
“The Curse of La Llorona,” a horror film from AT&T’s T, +0.16% Warner Bros, topped the weekend’s box office, but it won’t last long. “Avengers: Endgame” opens later this week, and there’s little doubt that, if it lives up to the hype, it will crush the competition for the foreseeable future.
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