Now that there's more certainty that President Donald Trump will finish his term in office, there's more incentive for the U.S. and China to reach a deal on trade, analysts say.
With the Russian investigations out of the way, there will be more incentives for the U.S. and China to come up with a trade deal now that it appears more likely for President Donald Trump to finish his term in office, analysts say.
"China will still have redlines, and a deal is by no means guaranteed, but the fact that an impeachment looks less likely will be meaningful for Beijing's calculus," Hirson said."One question now is whether Trump himself decides that he now has more leverage over Beijing and drives a harder line in negotiations."
"The fact there wasn't any smoking gun, indictment of Trump or Trump family members, puts the administration in a better position to fight for the 2020 election — and that has implications for the trade talks," he said, noting the Chinese will have to give more weight to the idea that Trump may be the U.S. leader for another term.
Former director-general of the World Trade Organization, Pascal Lamy, said Monday he expects a U.S.-China trade deal will likely include two parts:"managed barter" of goods from each country, and a focus on some structural issues. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to travel to Beijing for trade talks on Thursday. The Chinese delegation under Vice Premier Liu He is expected to lead a team to the U.S. the following week.
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