The Five Star Movement, one half of a coalition government in Italy, continues to fare badly in regional elections in the country, results that could spell 'political disaster' for the party.
"We expect that this sharp downtrend will deliver ripple effects on national politics over the next months. It is obvious that M5S needs to develop a strategy to avoid a dramatic defeat at the EU elections. The M5S leader Di Maio — a staunch supporter of the government experience next to Lega — has already announced an internal reorganization of the party, but that looks to us only an attempt to avoid a broader questioning of its leadership," Protopapa said.
Jack Allen, a senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, noted Monday that with the parties"deep ideological differences … it would not be surprising to see them split." He said there was a good chance of this happening after the European elections, where opinion polls suggest that Lega will become the biggest Italian party in the European Parliament."It is far from certain that the government will collapse.
Lega's anti-immigration stance has grated with M5S' left-wing, however, and J.P. Morgan's Protopapa said that if this faction within the movement starts to oppose what they see as acquiescence towards Lega, this could lead directly to either an outright split in the party, or, more likely,"to the creation of a group of dissenters which may revoke its support to the government on key parliamentary decisions.
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