As African swine fever continues to ravage China's hog herd, the impact may be far worse than Beijing is conceding. It could lead to significant shortages of the country's staple meat and drive up global prices of protein, according to experts.
As African swine fever continues to ravage China's hog herd, the impact may be far worse than Beijing is conceding. The crisis could lead to significant shortages of the country's staple meat and drive up global prices of protein, experts said. The situation also increasing fear among U.S. pork producers of spreading contagion.
On Tuesday, China's agricultural minister said African swine fever is now "under effective control" and the number of cases is slowing down. The government official also was quoted by state media as insisting the production of live pigs and pork supplies is generally stable. The economist termed it"a very dire situation" and estimates hog feeding in China has fallen at least 40% and in some larger swine producing regions plummeted more than 50% in response to the disease. He said the decline is directly attributable to infected pigs dying and producers afraid of the disease and liquidating herds to salvage some value.
The U.S. government recently announced increased measures to prevent the disease from entering the domestic livestock supply, including a renewed focus on "strict on-farm biosecurity" measures and other steps. Another estimate from a report recently published by a Chinese agriculture consulting firm shows the deficit in pork supplies will be less than half of the amount projected by INTL FCStone.
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