Major banks raise China growth forecasts after surprise GDP numbers — some are still cautious

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Major banks raise China growth forecasts after surprise GDP numbers — some are still cautious
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China's better-than-expected first quarter GDP growth is spurring economists at Citi, Barclays and ING to raise their growth forecasts for this year, though other analysts are holding off for now.

China's better-than-expected first quarter economic growth has spurred some investment banks to raise their growth forecasts for this year.

By comparison, China's economy grew by 6.4 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of last year, and 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018. Economists at Barclays raised their expectation for GDP expansion for this year to 6.5 percent from the previous 6.2 percent, citing the surprise first-quarter growth result.

"Our new baseline scenario is that a framework trade deal between the U.S. and China will be reached in and it will lift most, if not all, existing punitive tariffs," economists at the U.S. bank wrote. China is officially targeting growth of between 6.0 percent to 6.5 percent this year. And while its quarterly GDP data is widely watched as the key barometer for the state of the economy, experts have long questioned its accuracy.For instance, economist Christopher Balding — a professor at Fulbright University Vietnam — said he's looking at business electricity consumption, which shrank despite the official report that the economy grew.

"Nothing is rosy," he said Thursday on CNBC's"Squawk Box," adding that"China is on a structural slowdown path. But stable growth and perhaps a little bit of upside, I think, is real, not just a one-off."

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