In 2013-17 between 33% and 63% of the annual measles cases in Europe were among people older than 14 years
vaccine became widely available in the 1960s, measles was an inevitable childhood disease. The highly contagious virus came round like clockwork. Infection conferred lifelong immunity—but at the cost, each year, of about 500 deaths and 50,000 hospitalisations in America alone. In the decades that followed, routine childhood vaccination in Western countries made measles increasingly rare. In recent years, however, outbreaks have become more frequent, with no signs of abating.
The main reason for this is the accumulation over time of people who missed one or both of the two measles jabs that are routine for children. At the same time, falling birth rates have led to fewer and fewer babies, who are susceptible to measles until they are old enough to be vaccinated. As a result, the average age of susceptible people has crept up.
A growing number of studies in recent years have tried to get ahead of the curve by predicting which age groups have the highest risk of an outbreak. They typically draw on data from health records and various surveys asking people about their vaccinations and socialising habits . Why such studies matter is illustrated by outbreaks like one that hit a childcare centre near Antwerp, in Belgium, in 2014. An adult employee at the centre caught measles during a trip to the Dutch “bible belt”, an area with a high concentration of religious groups opposed to vaccines. Upon returning to work, the employee started an outbreak that infected 28 infants; 12 were hospitalised.
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