As member nations gather to celebrate NATO's 70th anniversary this week, POLITICO asked experts to forecast what the military alliance will look like 10 years from now
Heather Conley is director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a former deputy assistant secretary of State in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs.
The challenge for NATO for the next 10 years is the variety of threats that they need to have the military capability to respond to. In terms of weapons purchases, we’re entering a whole new phase in the way one thinks about deterrence and cyber warfare. There will be an increase in purchases of drones, underwater unmanned vehicles, next-generation fighters, F-35s. It’s a big moment where the challenges are getting greater and NATO is certainly stepping up its capabilities.
If NATO completes the shift back toward its primary reason for existence — the territorial defense of the member states — then the alliance will be in good shape in 2029. The alliance needs the capabilities, plans and political will in place to defend the territorial integrity of all of its members, particularly in the Baltic and Black Sea regions.
A separate, but no less important, challenge is the effort of some within Europe to develop an independent EU military capability. The creation of an EU force would not only be duplicative, but would weaken NATO, siphoning off scarce resources from the alliance.
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