No US-based chief financial officers on the CNBC Global CFO Council think there will be a recession this year. The markets, investors and Fed face a rising level of anxiety about a recession, but the latest CNBC survey finds no immediate concern.
If you're looking for trillions of dollars making the bet that a recession is coming sooner rather than later for the U.S. economy, don't look to major corporations.
The CNBC Global CFO Council represents some of the largest public and private companies in the world, collectively managing nearly $5 trillion in market value across a wide variety of sectors. The first quarter 2019 survey was conducted between Feb. 7 and Feb. 22 among 54 members of the Council. Chief financial officers remain less convinced about the renewed U.S. stock market rally — and their recent concerns about stock valuations proved to be prescient. In the fourth quarter survey, CFOs told CNBC that it was more likely the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined to 23,000 than rose to 27,000. That survey was conducted shortly before the massive declines in December that saw the Dow touch a low just under 22,000.
Concerns about a global growth slowdown are weighing on the Federal Reserve. In comments earlier this week at a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas event, Fed vice chairman Richard Clarida said the global economic slowdown was a big factor behind the central bank's decision to slow its planned interest rate hikes."The reality is that the global economy is slowing. You've got negative growth in Italy, Germany may just grow ... 1 percent this year, [and] a slowdown in China.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday in semiannual testimony before the U.S. Senate,"while we view the current economic conditions as healthy and the economic outlook as favorable, over the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals. ... financial conditions are now less supportive of growth than they were earlier last year." Powell also expressed concerns about China and Europe.
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