Investors seem to be betting history will repeat itself, with the Federal Reserv...
LONDON - Investors seem to be betting history will repeat itself, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to keep the U.S. expansion going, just as it did in 1998, producing one final bull run in oil and equity markets.
Prompt reductions helped to ensure the U.S. economy continued expanding for another 30 months before finally entering recession in April 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Brent’s six-month month calendar spread swung from a contango of more than $2 a barrel in the summer of 1998 to backwardation above $4 by the start of 2000 as excess inventories evaporated.
Unemployment was at 4.6 percent, the lowest for a quarter of a century, while core consumer prices excluding food and energy were rising at 2.8 percent a year . At the same time, U.S. equity indices and Brent spot prices are pushing steadily higher, implying that the U.S. and global economies will avoid a severe slowdown.
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