Opinion: Iran and U.S. mobilizations could lead to conflict, if there’s a miscalculation
By David Ignatius David Ignatius Columnist covering foreign affairs Email Bio Follow Columnist May 9 at 6:02 PM Behind recent U.S. and Iranian military mobilizations lies a perception by each side that the other may be about to attack. This doesn’t appear to be posturing by either side but is instead a confrontation that could led to actual conflict if there’s a miscalculation.
This sense of an imminent Iranian threat marks a break from what U.S. officials had predicted just two weeks ago. At that time, officials expected that Tehran would try to ride out President Trump’s campaign of sanctions over the next 20 months, in the hope they would be removed by his successor. The militia leader’s tone seemed conciliatory: “There is still an opening to de-escalate things if the other side doesn’t want direct conflict,” he said, according to the intermediary who had been asked to speak on his behalf. The American intermediary, whom I’ve known for nearly a decade, conveyed the message on condition that the militia leader’s name and organization wouldn’t be directly identified.
The larger question emerging from this week’s showdown is where the U.S. strategy of “maximum pressure” is heading. The Iranians clearly are feeling the squeeze and looking for a way to push back.
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