Opinion: Think the Netanyahu corruption allegations will change Israel? Think again.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech in Ramat Gan, Israel, on March 4. By Gershom Gorenberg Gershom Gorenberg Bio March 8 at 12:35 PM “You conveyed demands to post positive news items about yourself, your wife, Sara Netanyahu, and members of your family, and photographs of you ... [and] to publish items with political messages that you desired to disseminate to the public.”
You might think that allegations such as these, from an incredibly cautious prosecutor, backed by mountains of evidence, would be enough to tip the next Israeli election against Netanyahu. You might hope that with Netanyahu’s exit, Israeli policy will shift leftward on the issue most essential to the country’s future — peace with the Palestinians and ending the occupation.
A ticket needs 3.25 percent of the national vote to get representation. If one of the small pro-Netanyahu parties gets just a bit less than that, its votes vanish and the opposition gains. But if one of the small parties supported mainly by the Arab minority gets a fraction of a percentage point too little, Netanyahu could stay in power. A shift of a few hundred votes for a splinter party — a mere political breeze — can have gale-force impact.
When political division are wide, when parties become tribes, corruption has less effect. Psychologist and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman has written about the flaw in human minds that makes people devalue a proposal coming from the other side in a conflict. The same applies to allegations: If you think they come from your political adversaries, you devalue them.
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