It's happening: Bryce Harper to the Phillies, reportedly for 13 years, $330 million. That's a great deal.
So if the Phillies had signed Harper for 10 years and $330 million today, no one would have batted an eye. That the actual deal is for 13 years, and that same $330 million total, seems to be off-putting to many observers. Folks, that's three more years and Sure, Harper might be toast by the time he reaches his age-36-37-38 seasons, but who cares? Any value he provides in those seasons is a bonus. It's what happens in his age-26-to-35 campaigns that will move the needle.
Let's illustrate the importance of this fact by looking at the career arcs of the owners of two contracts currently considered to be albatrosses, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. Cabrera was guaranteed $240 million over eight years from age 33 to 40 by the Tigers while Votto was guaranteed $225Cabrera has posted a cumulative 4.5 WAR over the first three years of that term while Votto has posted 22.9 WAR over the first five years of his deal.
We'd be remiss to go any further without at least addressing the risks assumed by the Phillies. Harper's defense was brutal last season, dragging his 2018 WAR figure down to 1.3. In addition, he has been an extreme puller on the ground in two of the last three seasons, allowing opposing clubs to overshift him and putting a pretty hard cap on his batting average.
As for the batting average, it wouldn't shock me if Harper never hits .300 in a season again, as he did in 2015 and 2017. But, hey, batting average is way overrated. His walk rate has been over two standard deviations higher than league average in two of the last three seasons, and his strikeout rate has always been well controlled for a power hitter.figure than their Adjusted Contact Score might suggest.
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