The crucial trend of the European elections was not a populist surge, but the revelation of the full scale of Europe's political fragmentation
THAT right-wing populism has gained ground in Europe in recent years is a well-established fact. A glance at the continent's recent electoral history shows that much: the Lega dominates Italy’s politics, Marine Le Pen made it to the run-off of the French presidential election in 2017, Law and Justice runs Poland and elsewhere smaller parties from Alternative for Germany to the Danish People’s Party and Vox in Spain are shaping their countries’ politics.
This evening’s result in the European elections provides some answers to that, and caveat the more excitable commentaries about the rise of nationalists in Europe. Turnout is up for the first time ever, and at 51% higher than in any European election since 1994. And yes, the right-populists have done well again.
Overall the three Eurosceptic or hard-right groups in the European Parliament have, according to the parliament’s own projection, increased their seat share from 21% to 23%. Hardly a surge and oddly static after five years that have seen Europe face a migration crisis, the Brexit vote, terror attacks and the wholesale fragmentation of the continent’s politics.
Of that fragmentation there was much more evidence. The Green group is projected to swell in size from 52 seats to 70 seats, thanks especially to the German Green party’s 21% showing . The centrist Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe will grow from 69 to a projected 101 seats, with Mr Macron’s Renaissance joining and immediately becoming its largest member.
This fact will shape the next European Parliament. For one thing, the EPP and S&D have lost their majority. Expect more ad hoc coalitions around case-by-case issues. And where a “grand coalition” of the centre is needed—on the upcoming approval of a new European Commission president, for example—it will have to be much broader than before and draw in liberals and even greens. The old two-party establishment has become at least a three-and-a-half-party establishment.
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