Russia's appetite for Belarus is dictated by foreign policy considerations rather than domestic ones, but either way, Lukashenko might prove a tough nut to crack.
As the world remains focused on Ukraine, Russia’s next big move might be brewing elsewhere. Since mid-2018 the Kremlin has visibly shifted to a more active engagement with Belarus, the 10-million people country perched on its Western border and ruled for the last quarter-century by Alexander Lukashenko, informally dubbed by observers as Europe’s last dictator.
Belarus expert Pavel Usov argues that Moscow needs Belarus as a Western strategic base in light of rising tensions with the West and Russia’s newly announced military ‘strategy of active defense’, which includes measures for preemptive neutralization of national security threats.
The December 2018 escalation in Russo-Belarusian relations also is geopolitical in nature. When in October 2018 Poland’s President Andrzej Duda proposed a U.S. military base in Poland, Russia’s ambassador Babich responded sharply that Moscow will interpret any attack on Belarus as an attack on Russia “with all the ensuing consequences.
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