A U.S.-China trade deal, less bad corporate earnings or positive economic reports could all be catalysts to push stocks back to their all-time highs.
div > div.group > p:first-child"> The S&P 500 Wednesday was just 2 percent below its September high of 2,940, and it has regained 23 percent from its late December low.
"I think the biggest catalyst to me at the moment here is that you're somewhere between intense recession fears and 'oh, I guess we're past that.' It's really going to be about the data," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthhold Group."If on Friday, you get a respectable payroll number, that's going to take us further in the direction that the recession is a ways off. If it falls apart, it's going to take us back to fear again.
"As we move into the second quarter, we're expecting a bit of a pause," he said, noting the market could consolidate around its former highs."That pause is likely temporary and we think it's really important that investors stay focused on the big picture and not be shaken out of the market in any consolidation or pull back that develops in the second quarter. We continue to look at semiconductor and cyclicals, emerging from the bear markets they went into in 2018.
Ari Wald, technical analyst with Oppenheimer, said at this point, the bond market is the most important topic on his radar."The message from the bond market, it's not positive. The silver lining for us is it's more to do with lower rates overseas and less about he fear of disinflatin in the U.S.," he said.
Wald said positive internals could lift the market to new highs, but it's not clear when it will get there."I think what the market does have going for it is still good seasonals. April is a strong performing month of the year. That said, it's also the peak in seasonals. We're finishing the best six months of of the year. It looks like the set up is there to see one potentially soon, ahead of what could be a choppier summer. I think it's a good start," he said.
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