TAKE FIVE: With more and more central banks pivoting towards policy easing, the issue of exchange rates looms large
FILE PHOTO: An attendent cleans the carpet next to U.S. and Chinese national flags before a news conference for the 6th round of U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, July 10, 2014. REUTERS/Jason Lee
It’s been a pretty tumultuous first-half and whether things calm down from here hinges on a June 28-29 summit of the G20 world powers, where Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to meet and hopefully resolve their differences on trade and tech. At stake is a decision on whether Washington slaps import tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods, a scenario that Goldman Sachs says could sink equity markets as much as 4%.
Trump has bones to pick with other G20 leaders too. He will meet Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan who is risking U.S. sanctions on his country by placing an order for Russian-made S-400 missile defence system. India, Mexico, Canada and Germany have also all at different times incurred Trump’s wrath over trade. Most recently he complained about the “devalued” euro which he said gave European exporters an unfair edge.
With more and more central banks pivoting towards policy easing, the issue of exchange rates looms large. Fears are that another currency war will further strain ties between nations. Japan says it will voice concern if currency moves elsewhere “deviate from economic fundamentals”. But having just signalled readiness to ramp up stimulus, it too could find itself on the receiving end of Trump’s anger.
Currency and trade wars aside, an actual war might be on the horizon after Trump allegedly ordered a missile strike on Iran, before rescinding it. Recent oil tanker attacks in the Gulf, blamed by Trump on Iran, also will be in focus.
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