The Trump administration has been slow to replace Defense Secretary James Mattis and fill a number of key open positions. The unintended side effect: the inertia brings stability to acquisition programs, to the relief of the defense industry and investors
because such officials are more dependent on him. Appointments in DOD have been relatively faster than in other parts of the government. Former Secretary James Mattis was confirmed within hours of the inauguration and was able to fill many senior DOD positions, unlike in other agencies such as the Department of State. Still, appointments were slow, and many vacancies have opened.
greatly strengthened the role of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and had the effect of expanding the joint staff so that it replicated the structure of the Secretary’ staff , including budget and program offices. Thus, the military is poised to step into decision-making if there is a void on the civilian side. How much of a problem this is can be debated. The point here, however, is that the military is more likely to favor continuity than change.
Vacancies also slow the move to realign the defense budget with the new national defense strategy. This strategy calls for a reorientation of effort to great power conflict, that is, a focus on China and Russia. This requires advanced technology weapons that can operate in a contested environment. This environment is very different from the regional conflicts that the United States has fought for the last 25 years and where it had overwhelming military superiority.
Strategists have been anxious to make this shift more quickly, but the military has been more cautious, recognizing the wide variety of possible demands for forces. Further, having built careers around certain weapons and programs, the military is reluctant to give them up. Thus, for example, although the president’s budget proposed retiring a carrier early because of its vulnerability in great power conflicts, Congress overturned that decision with the Navy’s acquiescence.
Vacancies will not go on forever. With the investigation of Acting Secretary Patrick Shanahan’s Boeing ties now complete, the expectation is that the president will nominate him as secretary and David Norquist, the Comptroller and now acting deputy secretary, as the deputy. Other nominations may follow in a cascade, but Senate confirmation will take time. Until then, continuity is more likely with defense programs than abrupt change.
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