The chances of Britain leaving without a deal, long assumed to be small, have greatly increased over the past 24 hours.
The problem is that there is very little sign that Parliament is about to do that.
The choice for EU leaders at that point will be either to prolong the agony of the last two years and accept a long Brexit delay of at least a year or to cut their losses and let Britain crash out without a deal next Friday. It is possible to somehow imagine that May would agree to all of this. It is also possible to imagine that it would also all somehow be agreed by the most divided UK Parliament in living memory and then endorsed by an already weary EU 27.
It is possible to imagine those efforts succeeding. It is also possible to imagine those efforts failing.Throughout this process, there has been a complacent assumption in Westminster that whatever happens, a no-deal Brexit will be avoided. So if absolutely everything goes well then Britain will be prevented from leaving without a deal both on Friday and again before the next deadline of the European Parliament elections in May.
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