A war against Iran would put tens of thousands of American troops at risk with no guarantee of victory.
As tensions rose between the U.S. and Iran this week, it was reported that the White House had considered a revised military plan to deploy 120,000 American troops to the Middle East in the event of an Iranian attack or acceleration of the country’s nuclear program.
Chas Freeman—a former senior U.S. diplomat and now a senior fellow at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs—told Newsweek any war “will not arise by accident or be deliberately initiated by Iran.” An F/A-18E Super Hornet launches from the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln on May 10, 2019 in the Red Sea. The aircraft carrier has been deployed to the Middle East to deter Iranian aggression. Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Dan Snow/U.S. Navy via Getty Images
The remainder of U.S. personnel in the region are based further afield in regions like Egypt and the British Indian Ocean Territory, as well as a handful in nations bordering Iran like Pakistan and Turkmenistan. Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, said this shows Iran can hit U.S. and allied targets not only regionally, but also further afield. “[Iran] uses international terrorism, and the U.S. has a global presence,” he explained.
But, Byman noted, such a move is akin to “high stakes poker” and could backfire. Not only would Iran be undermining its own ability to export oil, but the knock-on effects on the global economy could drive the international community to drop their skepticism and rally around the U.S. Thus far, Tehran has been able to portray itself as the reasonable party, Byman explained. “ Close the straits and that changes.
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