As Wall Street braces for what may be the first U.S. profit decline since 2016, ...
NEW YORK - As Wall Street braces for what may be the first U.S. profit decline since 2016, investors say the first quarter may not mark the low point for 2019 earnings.
In a troubling sign for the U.S. outlook, a report on Friday showed U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly cooled in March, and the spread between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year note yields inverted for the first time since 2007. An inverted Treasury yield curve is seen as a warning of a coming recession.
“It would be great if Q1 represented a low point, but I’m not betting on it,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management in Chicago. Those numbers could keep falling, while the first-quarter forecast is likely to improve from here. Since 1994, earnings have surprised to the upside on average by 3.2 percent, according to Refinitiv data, which suggests S&P 500 companies will post an earnings gain for the first quarter.
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