Kicking off the primary season with Iowa and New Hampshire might not make sense for Democrats. FiveThirtyEight re-ordered the Democratic primary calendar to better represent the party’s voters:
” that also makes a lot of delegates available early on, so perhaps having more delegate-rich states right at the start of the calendar wouldn’t notably speed up the winnowing process.
As you work farther into primary season, the differences between the calendar we’ve come up with and the stillbecome less stark. The next 10 states in our rankings offer a wide variety of geographical and size diversity, much like the current Super Tuesday batch, and the order of states would matter less if multiple states vote on the same day, as is often the case. The main difference at this point is where some of the current carve-out states fall in our rearranging of the calendar.
In particular, South Carolina’s move to late in the calendar highlights an issue with this ranking that could cause a lot of blowback in the party. African-American voters account for about 20 percent of all Democrats nationwide, and they are particularly concentrated in the South. Along with South Carolina, the Deep South electorate in Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi all fall to the bottom of the rankings.
It’s worth noting that this ranking technique gives a big advantage to states with diverse populations within their borders, but another approach could involve grouping states to produce representative electorates across state lines. Because multiple states vote on some primary dates, a group of states that aren’t very representative of the national Democratic electorate on their own could combine to form a voter pool that looks much like the party as a whole.
If this thought experiment has shown anything, it’s that any change to the primary calendar would involve trade-offs for Democrats. In other words, there’s no perfect primary calendar — but it’s still worth discussing whether the current one is worth keeping.
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