What early 2020 ratings can—and can’t—tell us. Via FiveThirtyEight:
At this point in the election cycle, there is still just too much time in which major, race-changing events, such as the 2008 financial crash, can take place. And, of course, we still don’t know who at least one of the nominees will be. Whether Democrats pick a strong or weak candidateBut the second type of forecast — predicting the relative partisanship of the states — can be made with a reasonable amount of confidence, even this far out from the election.
The problem is that this second type of prediction may be easier, but it’s also less valuable. If one party wins the national popular vote by more than a few percentage points, the outcome of the election will be— there will be no need to finely parse electoral-vote totals. But the closer the election, the more precise you need to be to guess the outcome correctly.
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