What more than 40 years of early primary polls tell us about 2020, via FiveThirtyEight:
of the modern primary era. This first installment runs through 1996 — analyzing primary polls for seven presidential elections is enough ground to cover in one article — and the next installment will start with the 2000 presidential primaries and run up through the 2016 presidential primaries.each election — so for the 2016 presidential primaries, that means all polls from 2015 — and then split them by whether they occurred in the first half of the year or the second half .
In the 2011 version of this series, Nate only looked at polls from the first half of the year before the election, but we decided to include the second half of the year as well because this helped us capture how a candidate’s standing changed during the course of the year and let us include candidates who jumped into the race on the later side.
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