While felons may be less likely to vote Republican, the bigger trend is they are overwhelmingly less likely to vote at all.
Senator Bernie Sanders doubled down this week on his belief that felons—both those who have completed their sentences and those still in prison—should have the right to vote. Within hours of his Monday night comments, the Republican National Committee had sent out an email to supporters attacking the 2020 Democratic candidate's position.
An influential 2002 study found that 73 percent of felons and ex-felons would vote Democrat and, if they had been able to vote in 2000, they would have decisively carried Al Gore to victory in Florida and to the White House. Even in Maine—one of two states, along with Vermont, where felons in prison never lose the right to vote—turnout remains low. This indicates that factors related to being convicted of a crime, such as being young and less educated, may contribute to lower political engagement, separate to the issue of being allowed to vote.
The potential for the ex-felon vote to swing any state is "very unlikely," according to Meredith. He added, however, that a number of seemingly obscure factors could decide an election as close as the 2018 Florida Senate race, which was decided by just 10,000 ballots. In looking at the assumption that felons and ex-felons naturally and actively vote for Democrats, there are two final issues to consider.
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