Opinion: Iran can’t win a war against the United States. But Tehran could win in negotiations.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Sochi, Russia, on Feb. 14. By Ray Takeyh May 16 at 8:24 AM Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Rouhani was signaling to his own hard-liners that it was time to engage President Trump. Iran cannot win a war against the United States, but it is confident it can outwit Washington at the negotiating table. The most persistent question in Iran today is not about war but whether it is time to entrap the Americans in another lengthy diplomatic process.
All this has now changed. Iran’s economy is imploding, and the inflation rate there is skyrocketing. The Trump administration has deterred European commerce and Asian investment from going into Iran. And it may yet succeed in driving down Iran’s oil imports close to zero. These are ominous signs for a regime whose power is based on an elaborate welfare state that sustains its dwindling supporters. Today it is patronage and not piety that holds up the wobbly foundations of the Islamist regime.
The real targets of Iran’s moves are not the Saudis, or even American hawks such as national security adviser John Bolton, but Congress, the Democratic Party and the Europeans. Iran has retreated from some of its commitments under the nuclear deal, thus causing much alarm about the full resumption of its nuclear program. This is designed to press the Trump White House to ratchet down its coercive measures.
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